Predicting Stock Volatility Using After-Hours Information

نویسندگان

  • Chun-Hung Chen
  • Wei-Choun Yu
  • Eric Zivot
چکیده

We use realized volatilities based on after hours high frequency returns to predict next day volatility. We extend GARCH and long-memory forecasting models to include additional information: the whole night, the preopen, the postclose realized variance, and the overnight squared return. For four NASDAQ stocks ( MSFT, AMGN, CSCO, and YHOO) we find that the inclusion of the preopen variance can improve the out-of-sample forecastability of the next day conditional day volatility. Additionally, we find that the postclose variance and the overnight squared return do not provide any predictive power for the next day conditional volatility. Our findings support the results of prior studies that traders trade for non-information reasons in the postclose period and trade for information reasons in the preopen period. Corresponding Author: Economic and Valuation Service, KPMG LLP, 500 East Middlefield Rd., Mountain View, CA 94043.Email: [email protected]. Tel: +1-650-404-4704. Fax: +1-650-523-4340. We thank Mike Wenz for helpful comments. 2 Economics and Finance Department, Winona State University, Somsen 319E, Winona, MN 55987, USA. Email: [email protected]. Tel: +1-507-457-2982. Fax: +1-507-457-5697. Department of Economics, University of Washington, Box 353330, Condon 401, Seattle, WA 98195. Email: [email protected]. Tel: +1-206-543-6715. Fax: +1-206-685-7477.

برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

ثبت نام

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

منابع مشابه

Has Tehran Stock Market Calmed Down after Global Financial Crisis?Markov Switching GARCH Approach

We have introduced an early warning system for volatility regimes regarding Tehran Stock Exchange using Markov Switching GARCH approach. We have examined whether Tehran Stock Market has calmed down or more specifically, whether the surge in volatility during 2007-2010 global financial crises still affects stock return volatility in Iran.  Doing so, we have used a regime switching GARCH model.  ...

متن کامل

تأثیر کیفیت افشای اطلاعات و عدم تقارن اطلاعاتی بر نوسان پذیری بازده سهام با استفاده از سیستم معادلات همزمان

   نوسان پذیری بازده سهام که به تغییرات در قیمت سهام گفته می‌شود تحت تأثیر عوامل متعددی در بازار است. از عوامل اثر گذار بر نوسان پذیری بازده سهام، عدم تقارن اطلاعاتی است (آینفوس، 2015) عدم تقارن اطلاعاتی نیز می‌تواند تحت تأثیر کیفیت افشای اطلاعات باشد (هرمالین و ویس بچ، 2007). بر این اساس تبیین ارتباط بین این متغیرها و چگونگی ارتباط بین آن‌ها در بازار سرمایه ایران نیر می‌تواند قابل توجه باشد. ب...

متن کامل

Stock risk mining by news

Due to the fast delivery of news articles by news providers on the Internet and/or via news datafeeds, it becomes an important research issue of predicting the risk of stocks by utilizing such textual information available in addition to the time series information. In the literature, the issue of predicting stock price up/down trend based on news articles has been studied. In this paper, we st...

متن کامل

Forecasting Stock Market Volatility and the Informational Efficiency of the DAX- index Options Market

Alternative strategies for predicting stock market volatility are examined. In out-of-sample forecasting experiments implied-volatility information, derived from contemporaneously observed option prices or history-based volatility predictors, such as GARCH models, are investigated, to determine if they are more appropriate for predicting future return volatility. Employing German DAX-index retu...

متن کامل

On the Predictability of Stock Market Behavior using StockTwits Sentiment and Posting Volume

In this study, we explored data from StockTwits, a microblogging platform exclusively dedicated to the stock market. We produced several indicators and analyzed their value when predicting three market variables: returns, volatility and trading volume. For six major stocks, we measured posting volume and sentiment indicators. We advance on the previous studies on this subject by considering a l...

متن کامل

ذخیره در منابع من


  با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید

برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

ثبت نام

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

عنوان ژورنال:

دوره   شماره 

صفحات  -

تاریخ انتشار 2009